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This is your weekly crypto markets update.
My name is Jackson, and today I’m joined by
senior market analyst Mati Greenspan. So,
my first question is Bitcoin has been, for
the most part, hanging out in the mid to low
$10,000s range for the past couple of weeks
now. Is this the new normal or are we preparing
for a major move in a different direction?
Excellent question. Overall, I would say that
when Bitcoin price is quiet, that’s generally
a good thing, right? Volatility has various
negative impact among them. It’s very difficult
to use something as a store of value when
it’s, you know, unpredictable what the price
is going to be in the future. So we see this
type of relaxation as overall a good progression.
But I would say that there is kind of a little
bit of apathy. I mean, just like right now,
within the last few days, the transaction
level has come down a little bit. And in volumes
as well. What’s happening right now is some
consolidation. We had an excellent run so
far this year. But in the last few weeks,
this is all noise, it’s like consolidation.
Now, in our last video, we call this a descending
triangle, which means that the most likely
outcome is we get a little bit of a break
below the $9,000 level psychological support.
But what we have here is the the 200-day moving
average, which is this blue line. Now, the
200-day moving average has been always, or
at least over the last 2-3 years, has been
critical for Bitcoin’s price. In 2017, it’s
supported the price all the way up. And then
in 2018, once it broke that blue line, we
kind of knew we were in a bear market. Through
2018 it tested it several times, showing that
this indicator acted as a great resistance.
And then, of course, when we had that April
2nd infamous surge in Bitcoin, it broke the
blue line. And that’s when we said: hey, everybody,
you know, the crypto winter is over and we
can start getting bullish again. So even if
we do break that $9K psychological support
level, we do have that blue line which is
creeping up right now. So the longer Bitcoin
holds above $9K, the more chance we have that
the blue line meets the price rather than
the other way around.
How are altcoins looking? Do they still seem
to be following Bitcoin’s lead?
That’s another good question. And actually
the answer I would say is a lot less than
they have been. I mean, over the last six
months, while Bitcoin was zooming, we saw
the altcoins very subservient. However, as
I mentioned at the moment, there’s a bit more
apathy surrounding Bitcoin and that allows
other projects to come in and take a little
bit of the spotlight back. And we can see
here on CoinCheckup, you know, Bitcoin over
the last week has done absolutely nothing.
It’s up less than half a percent. Whereas
things like Ethereum and EOS have actually
seen something of a gain. And then we have
other, you know, other coins which are in
a bit of a loss like Binance coin, etc. So
I would say that that dynamic where Bitcoin
is leading seems to be ebbing off a little
So Ethereum has been making a bit of a bullish
run over the past couple of days. Do you see
this upward move continuing?
As far as, you know, the price of Ethereum,
I mean, we can see that whereas Bitcoin has
had a massive surge this year, Ethereum has
kind of been lagging. And we can see that
just also playing with that 200-day moving
average. What I mentioned last week and, you
know, Ethereum is obviously growing. I mean,
we know that the scaling issues is actually
a byproduct of that growth more than anything
else. But the question really is regarding
the growth of the network versus the incoming
supply. Now there’s about 13,500 new Ethereum
coming online every single day. So that’s
the rate of inflation. The question is how
much of that is actually being demanded, right.
How much is required for, you know, new projects
that are coming online that need the Ether
for their development and etc. Now, according
to conversations I had with Joe Lubin, it’s
very difficult to tell because Ethereum is
such an open platform. Anybody can really
code any way they want to. So there isn’t
really a standardized format where they can
pick out specific metrics to say, here’s the
growth on the network, here’s the demand.
All we really have to go by is the daily transaction
levels, which is, you know, upward of about
$100,000 per day. But still, if you think
about $2 million worth of Ether coming online,
you know, every day, it’s quite significant.
But just looking at this chart, I mean, we
can see it. We can see that we are finding
or at least looking for some sort of a bottom
and there is a whole bunch of upward potential,
if we do get some sort of a surge.
Very interesting, thank you. So, Bitcoin’s
hash rate has reached new all-time highs this
past week, almost hitting 100 quintillion
hashes per second. What does that mean for
the network? And will this have any effect
on the price?
So Bitcoin hash rate, I believe is actually
it’s an effect and not a cause. What we saw
in the beginning of the year, you know, this
massive surge in Bitcoin has gotten a lot
of people excited about mining Bitcoin. And
what we’ve seen is from the people who make
those mining machines, they’ve put a lot of
money into research and development to make
sure that they get the latest model. There’s
actually a war going on between the top producers
of mining equipment to see who can make the
best machines that are the most energy efficient
and produce the most amount of hash power.
Antminer most notably just came out with their
new 17 series and they sold out quite instantaneously,
as soon as they put the product online, it
was already sold out. So what we’re seeing
right now is a tremendous growth in interest
and activity on the mining front. Now, historically,
we know that Bitcoin’s hash rate and its price
are usually quite closely correlated. So when
the hash rate goes up, the price has a tendency
to follow and vice versa. But we can’t really,
I mean, I’ve seen, you know, ridiculous analysis
that say: OK, according to the hash rate,
Bitcoin needs to be $100,000 right now. Let’s
not get carried away. What we’re seeing right
now, I believe, is the effect of that surge
at the beginning of the year. And now the
hash rate is growing exponentially because
of technological advances that were due to
So it’s just a sign that the network is growing
and it’s good.
Exactly. The network is growing both with
the number of people that are interested in
participating and the technology behind it
is growing as well.
Excellent. So futures are beginning to arrive
in earnest. As I’m sure you’ve heard, Bakkt
will be launching regulated physically settled
bitcoin futures contracts in just over a week,
on September 23rd. How is this launch going
to affect Bitcoin or have we already seen
the effects of this news on Bitcoin?
I think that the community has been kind of
speculating on this for quite a while. A lot
of that growth that we’ve seen this year,
I mean, is due to excitement surrounding institutional
adoption. Bakkt is just one of those, you
know, one of those institutions. But it is
one of the biggest ones who wants to introduce
Bitcoin futures to Wall Street. It is a very
good thing for the network because it introduces
more players, especially ones with deep pockets.
So what we see is more liquidity, which Bitcoin
notoriously lacks due to its limited supply.
So we see more liquidity in the market that
would tend to lend itself towards more price
stability, which is also a good thing. Now,
the bigger question that a lot of people are
asking is, who’s going to be doing what, as
soon as it launches, right? As soon as it
launches, is there, you know, kind of a backlog
of orders or backlog of people who want to
get in on opening day. And anything can happen,
obviously. I don’t know the future and I certainly
don’t know what’s happening on Bakkt’s order
books at the moment. But my guess would be
that there isn’t anybody, especially with
the apathy that we’ve been seeing in the last,
Wall Street is in tune, I mean, people who
are trading, they are in tune with the market
conditions. So what I would say is that I
wouldn’t necessarily expect a huge surge on
the day that Bakkt opens, you know, because
you have a flood of money coming in, but rather
during the next surge, whenever it happens,
for whatever reason, then you have all of
a sudden people who are very familiar and
have a lot of money and are able to contribute
to that next search.
How is the arrival of this unique type of
regulated, physically settled contract going
to affect Bitcoin dominance over altcoins,
seeing as altcoins have yet to see this kind
of physical settlement system established?
Yeah. So I was looking at, I mean, because
you asked about Bitcoin dominance, so obviously
we have to look at CoinMarketCap’s Bitcoin
dominance index. And at the moment it is almost
as high as it was before there was an altcoin
market. I mean, to be quite clear this is,
January 2017, that’s before the ICO, you know,
revelation happened. So Bitcoin dominance,
I believe, I mean, you can see, we spoke at
the beginning of the video about that dynamic
where Bitcoin is kind of getting apathetic
and other ones are starting to shine in its
place. And you can kind of see that happening
here, where that growth in dominance is kind
of slowing down a little bit. I would find
it very difficult, I would imagine that it
would be very difficult for Bitcoin to actually
grow much in dominance, pass where it is right
now. I mean, we’re talking about, you know,
compared to, you know, 2016 levels where,
you know, the only competitor was, you know,
maybe Ethereum and XRP.
But I mean, nowadays there is an entirely
new market with many different blockchains.
And to see it that strong at the moment is,
quite frankly, pretty surprising.
Thank you, everyone, for watching.
This has been Jackson with
senior market analyst Mati Greenspan,
bringing you your weekly crypto
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